If you fall down into a deep hole, there really is only one way out. Up.

Brexit is a bottomless pit of abject stupidity and depressing despair, but we have to assume at some point, we will slam into the very rock bottom. When we do, what will happen? 

The only way out is up. 

I wanted to get this prediction written down, on the extreme outside chance I am right. If I am, and that’s a big eff-ing if, then I will be seen as a genius of prognostication and you might even want to invite me to your next dinner party. But before I accept, do you have a special smoking area, for, you know, cool smoking? 😉

Here’s how I see things playing out over the next couple of months. I won’t put in any firm timings, beyond the one obvious one… As the law stands, right now, as I bash my keyboard and spew out my scenario, Britain will leave the EU, without a deal, on the 31st of October. Halloween. 

Boo!

Did I scare you? You should be scared, because if we crash out on All Hallows’ Eve, it will not be a pretty picture. But I’m not here to debate or outline the calamity that would be a no-deal Brexit. I’m here to explain that unless something miraculous happens, this is the most likely outcome. 

But don’t worry, I am also going to outline what that miraculous salvation could be. It might be our only hope. You can thank me later.

Again, as I write this, the Tory leadership contest is still ongoing, with both candidates trying to outdo each other in just how quickly and efficiently they can drive the UK over a cliff edge into a no-deal, must-have, do-or-die, bang -on-time, Brexit. 

We live in Crazy Town, population, all of us. Please send help.

Unless a different miracle happens, we are headed for a government lead by Bumbling Boris Johnson. Or should it be Bungling Boris Johnson? How about bumbling on the first reference, bungling on the second? (Note to self, adopt this as hippy house-style from now on). 

So Bumbling Boris will almost certainly be our next PM. All Boris has to do to facilitate a no-deal Brexit, is nothing. If he does absolutely nothing, the clock runs out and we leave the European Union, as the current law states at the end of October. We know, from his disastrous spell as Mayor of London, that Bungling Boris is extremely lazy. Doing sweet FA is his specialty. Remember his limp, late response to the riots in 2011? He can handle doing nothing. I bet he is doing nothing right now, this very second. And for this, his advisors are grateful. 

But, but, but you say, parliament will bring down the government, if no-deal appears to be the likely outcome. I wouldn’t argue with this, I think that a no-confidence vote is very possible in this scenario. Likely even. And it may very well succeed. But that won’t solve our problems.

A no confidence vote will not solve our problems, because it leaves Bumbling, Bungling Boris, as caretaker Prime Minister. A dissolved parliament can’t force him to request an extension to Article 50, any more than a sitting parliament could. All he has to do is sit on his hands and run out the clock. But that’s not checkmate, not yet. 

While an election would strengthen any request for an extension, it would still require a formal request to be made, by the PM, Boris. The EU would not unilaterally grant one, even for an election, without that formal request. If Befuddled Boris doesn’t write to Brussels, an election at this point won’t help. Please see the previous paragraph about Boris sitting on his hands. 

Following a successful no-confidence vote, and before an election is called, opposition parties have a fortnight to form a new government with the Queen’s blessing. This is our only small glimmer of hope.

If the other parties could form some sort of government of national unity, they could do two very useful things. 

The first is to revoke Article 50. 

Sure, the government of national unity could request another extension, but at this point, I fear the EU would politely decline. Could you blame them? After watching this slow-moving car crash for over 3 years, it would make sense for the European Union to effectively tell us to shit or get off the pot. 

That would make for a very stark, binary choice, leave without a deal and suffer all that comes with it, or revoke Article 50, sparing the country enormous pain, while alienating a large portion of the general public. 

Decisions, decisions.

You might have noticed, I glossed over the whole government of national unity thing. At its heart, would have to be the Labour Party. Yes, the same Labour Party that currently doesn’t have a decisive remain policy. Let’s be honest, their stance on Brexit lacks any real clarity. They have tried to make it be all things, to all people and that strategy has failed. 

Labour would be the largest party in this mythical coalition, but the other parties that would help form it, are are all firmly on the remain side, For this to work, for Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister, Labour would have to also come out hard for remain. They would not have a choice. The alternative is that cliff edge, that they claim to want to avoid. This will be their chance to avoid it, once and for all.

A government of national unity, as the name suggests, puts country ahead of party, something our current parliament, and especially the Conservative Party seems to be unable to do. If this all plays out, as I am suggesting, the least worst outcome would be the revocation of Article 50.

And I have crunched the numbers, based on the current composition of parliament. Mathematics follow:

The Tories are a minority government, with 312 seats. The DUP prop them up with their 10 seats, as part of the confidence and supply agreement hammered out after our last election in 2017. 

There are 650 seats in parliament, The speaker, plus the 3 deputy speakers, don’t vote. Sinn Fein don’t take their 7 seats, and there is currently one vacancy, so a full house right now is 638. Half of that is 319, a majority of 1 seat is 320. The Tories and the DUP combined, have 322. That’s the current magic number the Tories and the DUP can muster to vote, on a good day.

Labour currently have 247 seats. The next largest party is the SNP with 35 seats, followed by the Lib Dems with 12, Change UK with 5, Plaid Cymru with 4, and the Green Party with 1. Total here is 303, so we are still shy 17 more MP’s to join the fun and games.

There are 15 independent MPs, for the sake of simplicity, I am going to divide that number in half and round it up to 8. It could be less, it could be more, so I think 8 is a reasonable compromise figure. That brings our historic government of national unity up to 311 seats. We are still 12 shy of the magic number, 323, to have more more votes than the Tory/DUP combo. 

Tories. We need Tories, less than a dozen of them. Maybe 10, maybe 12, without certainty, I will stick to 9. Based on rumour and voting records, I am banking on there being at least 9 principled Conservative MPs willing to join a government of national unity. 

If current media reports are correct, there are around 30 current Conservative MPs that are willing to bring a no-deal focussed government down, we should be OK on this score.

The Brecon and Radnorshire by-election is expected on the 1st of August. I’m not going to attempt to predict the outcome, especially since the pro- remain parties are cooperating. But this one seat, will probably be filled before my scenario will play out. So yes, my calculations are slightly fuzzy. Also, I am not a parliamentary scholar, I’m just some random British journalist and career stoner with too much time on my hands right now.

I am not saying any of this will be easy, or straightforward, but what I am saying is that it is possible. More than possible, but likely. And more than just likely, as I truly believe at this point, it is our one and only hope. 

The second useful thing my imaginary government of national unity will do, will be to call another no confidence vote, to bring themselves down. Having done the only thing required of them, by cancelling Brexit and getting all of us out of this very deep hole, it would no longer need to exist and an election could be safely called. 

Some MPs would be rewarded, and some would be punished in the next general election, but all of those who supported the government of national unity, will be looked upon by history most kindly, even if some people today, end up hating them. 

I have no doubt that our next parliament, and our next government, will be unlike anything we’ve seen in living memory. The Brexit Party will get seats, neither the Tories nor Labour will have a majority, and the Lib Dems may become players again. Maybe the Greens will finally get more MPs. Anything is possible. And we could end up with another coalition government that lacks a big majority and its chief feature would be its inherent instability. 

Whatever happens next, Brexit still needs to be dealt with, somehow. There is only one deal on offer, the same one that parliament has repeatedly rejected, the same one that the EU says will not be renegotiated under any circumstances. That deal is dead. And no deal would be a disaster. Our only hope is a government of national unity.

Or the apocalypse, but I am not convinced even the end of the world could end the endless stupidity that is Brexit. 

We can’t lose hope. There’s only one way out of a hole. It’s up. And up is the positive direction. So let’s put the up in uplifting. We need a government of nationality unity that will exist for one purpose, to revoke Article 50. So let’s just do that.  

The northlondonhippy is an anonymous author, online cannabis activist and recreational drug user, who has been writing about drugs and drug use for over 15 years.  In real life, the hippy is a senior multimedia journalist with over 30 years experience of working in the industry. 

The hippy’s book, ‘Personal Use’ details the hippy’s first 35 years of recreational drug taking, while calling for urgent drug law reform. It’s a cracking read, you will laugh, you will cry and you can bet your ass that you will wish you were a hippy too!

“Personal Use” is available as a digital download on all platforms, including Amazon’s Kindle, Apple’s iBooks and Barnes & Noble’s Nook. The paperback is available from all online retailers and book shops everywhere. 

You can also find the northlondonhippy on Twitter: @nthlondonhippy –  follow him and receive a free gift*)

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